Two groups got answers they’d been waiting for last week, signaling what was to come for their future.
Catholics got their new pope. But Georgia Republicans are still waiting for their candidate now that Brian Kemp has said he won’t run.
No plume of smoke arose from the Governor’s Mansion when Kemp announced he would not seek one of Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats next year. Nor would voting have been canceled if Kemp had decided otherwise.
But Kemp would have been the closest thing to an ordained selection in the GOP’s nominating process: a sure bet to face Democrat Jon Ossoff, leaving other ambitious Republicans to seek other races or stay put.
Instead, it’s looking like maximum political chaos.
The two plum jobs on the 2026 ballot are governor and senator. The former is open because Kemp is term-limited. While the latter has an incumbent, Republicans in Georgia and nationally view the seat as a prime opportunity in what could be a tough year elsewhere – and perhaps their last, best chance to unseat Ossoff. One-term senators can be vulnerable, but two-term senators start to look permanent.
Without Kemp in the Senate race, more Republicans in statewide offices or Congress will start activating plans they’ve been quietly making as contingencies.
Attorney General Chris Carr is the only declared candidate for governor among Georgia’s seven other statewide, constitutional officers — but he won’t be the last. The only one not rumored to be eyeing other posts is newly appointed Labor Commissioner Barbara Rivera Holmes, who’s just settling into an office opened by the untimely death of Bruce Thompson.
Similarly, Congressman Buddy Carter of the 1st District, which hugs Georgia’s coast, is the first out of the gate to seek the Senate nomination. Other names have been bandied about, and it would be surprising if we don’t see one or two of Carter’s colleagues join the fray.
The domino effect will be far-reaching. State senators will run statewide or for Congress. State representatives will backfill those seats or run against those senators. And not only among Republicans: Apart from Ossoff’s seat, each office will attract Democrats as well. State Sens. Jason Esteves, Josh McLaurin and Emanuel Jones have already announced bids for governor, lieutenant governor and the 13th Congressional District, respectively.
It was only a few years ago, after the 2022 elections, that a quarter of the General Assembly’s 236 seats (180 House, 56 Senate) turned over. That’s 60 offices. History suggests more change is on the way.
In 2018, the last open race for governor, two statewide officers ran for that job and a third retired. Eight state legislators sought higher office and a whopping 18 ran for re-election but lost, along with the usual complement of legislator retirements. In all, I counted 41 legislative seats that changed hands.
The previous open race for governor, in 2010, was even more volatile. Seven statewide offices changed hands, along with three congressional seats. Those opportunities attracted a couple of dozen state legislators; in all, 51 legislators elected in 2008 did not return to their previous positions.
Amazingly, both of those years pale in comparison to 2002 – which had an incumbent running for governor, Roy Barnes, who ended up losing (as did U.S. Sen. Max Cleland) in part of the first red wave to hit Georgia in more than a century. Some 74 legislators did not return to office in 2003.
Democratic fortunes have been trending upward in Georgia until last year – similar to the way momentum grew for Republicans in the cycles leading up to 2002. Plus, there’s the potential for lots of elected officials to seek higher offices that open up, just as in 2010 and 2018. Might next year bring the most chaotic election Georgia has seen?
It’s too soon to say yes. But as of today, there are plenty of reasons to believe it just may be.
Kyle Wingfield is president and CEO of the Georgia Public Policy Foundation: www.georgiapolicy.org.